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Many believe that this slackening will cause the stock market to crash. We cover this in depth here. From there through February they have were relatively flat once again.

In April they reduced rates to virtually zero i. In June through August they ticked it up nominally which was more symbolic than anything else since it is still only one tenth of a percent above zero.

From the chart above, we can see that FED interest rates "stair stepped" up throughout and and from February through January it increased six fold. By the fourth quarter of , the markets got spooked due to the combined raising interest rates and Quantitative Tightening QT that occurred during and the FED promised to curb their "tightening" at that point it only included FED Funds Rate since QT has continued through September The FED Funds rate leveled off, for the first half of Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Each month the oldest month drops out of the calculation and a new month is added. The CPI creates a standard to compare against to help us determine the real purchasing power value of a Dollar because the level of prices is constantly changing due to increases or decreases in the money supply.

The red line is a 12 month moving average, meaning it is the average of the annual inflation rate as measured during the last 12 months.

If the red line is pointing up we are in an inflationary trend. When the red line is pointing down we have "disinflation" i. If the inflation rate is simply trending down we call it "disinflation".

An example of disinflation would be if the annual inflation rate is 3. This is a relatively rare event, the last time that happened before on an Annual Basis prices were lower than year ago was in , although we have had deflation for a single month on a more regular basis where prices fell compared to the previous month.

By definition, whenever a line crosses through its moving average a change in direction is indicated. So when the black line crossed up through the red line in August of that indicated that inflation was no longer falling disinflation but was now in a uptrend inflation.

The yellow long term trend line indicates we had been in a downtrend since the peak in The key point came in June of when the index crossed above the yellow line confirming the end of the inflation downtrend.

So although the short term downtrend ended in August the long term disinflationary trend ended in June of We have to remember that typically the months of January through May are highly inflationary, June through September are moderately inflationary and October through December produce the lowest increase in prices and are often even deflationary.

However, in January we only had 0. The months of June through September are moderate and then October- December actually erases some of it through disinflation.

Inflation was very low in and even lower in So where does that leave us? Inflationary forces were building or at least returning to "normal" in but the trend in was more questionable.

Then throughout the FED pursued a policy of higher interest rates and retiring debt i. Quantitative Tightening which began reducing inflation in mid but also sent the Stock Market tumbling in the 4th quarter of In inflation was in almost the perfect range if any inflation can be considered "perfect".

But inflation began ticking up in late and early until the Oil Price War and the Coronavirus crashed the stock market and took inflation to near zero.

Calculating the Current Inflation Rate. If we compare July 's cpi index which was See monthly Inflation for a table of all the individual months since The months January through May plus again in September ended with annual deflation.

Note that the BLS rounded some of these months to 0. Also worth noting: Annual deflation for the first five months of was primarily due to lower gasoline prices rather than a lack of FED money printing although the FED had tapered it's "Quantitative Easing" program.

One major issue remains, i. June through December saw inflation increase with the exception of the year ending in September which was slightly deflationary again.

Interestingly, the CPI index peaked in August and then fell steadily from September through December from That is because October, November and December were more deflationary than October, November and December so as each month's rate was replaced the ANNUAL inflation rate rose even though the monthly inflation rate was negative but less negative than the previous year.

As we can see from the chart over the last 25 years they have hit the target a total of 6 times out of more than data points.

This lends credence to the idea that the FED has less control over inflation and even deflation than they would like us to believe. The overall trend since has been down with a few brief periods of higher inflation.

The chart shows the annual inflation rate from The rate peaked in October at 6. Inflation increased from there to peak at 5. The FED's Quantitative easing pumped inflation back up to 3.

However, as prices were beginning to climb again in the price of oil came crashing down. Common wisdom has it that in order to flush out shale oil and alternatives like Solar and Wind.

But is this really the cause of the oil glut? And will the new deal with Russia eliminate it? One of the major factors in Consumer Price Inflation is the price of energy primarily gasoline for their vehicles but also heating oil, and Electricity which is also dependent on oil prices.

Of course prices vary widely across the country due primarily to the imposition of state taxes on gasoline. For instance California imposes In January , several states adjusted their highway taxes Pennsylvania already had the largest gas tax in the country, at We have published several articles on how the Oil price is affected by the petrodollar but gasoline prices are also affected by state and federal highway taxes.

Historically Democrats have pushed for an increase in the This would increase the price that you pay at the pump not just while gas prices are low but even if gasoline prices returned to previous higher levels.

Although monthly inflation for the first two months was 0. But annualizing that rate would still result in 4. Fortunately the first quarter is usually the highest and then typically inflation decreases and often ends in deflation in the last quarter of the year.

Monthly inflation was negative disinflationary every month from July through November except September when it was slightly inflationary 0.

September fell back to 1. November bumped up a bit to 1. See - Inflation Recap for more information. This was the beginning of the Quantitative Easing program and later called QE1.

In the long run steady low inflation rates benefit everyone as people can accurately judge their future costs and make sound business decisions.

But the government prefers a higher inflation rate so it can repay its debts with "cheaper dollars. This is what the government means by "stimulating the economy" i.

The obvious long term effects are a society with more debt than it should have and thus we see crashes like we saw in Then the government has to "do something" so it prints more money to fix the problem it created by printing money in the first place.

For more detail see: Stimulate the Economy? Most of these securities were virtually worthless at this point. But just a few months earlier they were considered part of the larger money supply.

So in effect the FED bailed out the owners of this junk debt and pumped up the money supply at the same time by converting worthless junk into "valuable" greenbacks.

In December Ben Bernanke began "tapering" which slowly shut off the flow of easy money and by October the flow was totally stopped.

Edward Griffen reminds us that the Federal Reserve is really just a bank cartel and it primarily has its members interests at heart. So monetizing worthless junk paper and bailing out the banks that held them makes perfect sense when looked at in that light.

Operation Twist was announced on September 21, and it was designed to buy long term Treasury notes on the open market while simultaneously selling short term notes.

This would have the effect of driving long-term interest rates down. Theoretically this should have helped mortgage borrowers better be able to afford new homes but more importantly to the bank cartel boost the demand for loans and the bank's profit margins.

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At its June meeting, they decided to raise it by another quarter percentage point bringing the benchmark rate to a 1. Those were their target ranges.

QT is the opposite of Quantitative Easing. But in June we see a decided decline. Many believe that this slackening will cause the stock market to crash.

We cover this in depth here. From there through February they have were relatively flat once again. In April they reduced rates to virtually zero i.

In June through August they ticked it up nominally which was more symbolic than anything else since it is still only one tenth of a percent above zero.

From the chart above, we can see that FED interest rates "stair stepped" up throughout and and from February through January it increased six fold.

By the fourth quarter of , the markets got spooked due to the combined raising interest rates and Quantitative Tightening QT that occurred during and the FED promised to curb their "tightening" at that point it only included FED Funds Rate since QT has continued through September The FED Funds rate leveled off, for the first half of Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Each month the oldest month drops out of the calculation and a new month is added. The CPI creates a standard to compare against to help us determine the real purchasing power value of a Dollar because the level of prices is constantly changing due to increases or decreases in the money supply.

The red line is a 12 month moving average, meaning it is the average of the annual inflation rate as measured during the last 12 months. If the red line is pointing up we are in an inflationary trend.

When the red line is pointing down we have "disinflation" i. If the inflation rate is simply trending down we call it "disinflation".

An example of disinflation would be if the annual inflation rate is 3. This is a relatively rare event, the last time that happened before on an Annual Basis prices were lower than year ago was in , although we have had deflation for a single month on a more regular basis where prices fell compared to the previous month.

By definition, whenever a line crosses through its moving average a change in direction is indicated. So when the black line crossed up through the red line in August of that indicated that inflation was no longer falling disinflation but was now in a uptrend inflation.

The yellow long term trend line indicates we had been in a downtrend since the peak in The key point came in June of when the index crossed above the yellow line confirming the end of the inflation downtrend.

So although the short term downtrend ended in August the long term disinflationary trend ended in June of We have to remember that typically the months of January through May are highly inflationary, June through September are moderately inflationary and October through December produce the lowest increase in prices and are often even deflationary.

However, in January we only had 0. The months of June through September are moderate and then October- December actually erases some of it through disinflation.

Inflation was very low in and even lower in So where does that leave us? Inflationary forces were building or at least returning to "normal" in but the trend in was more questionable.

Then throughout the FED pursued a policy of higher interest rates and retiring debt i. Quantitative Tightening which began reducing inflation in mid but also sent the Stock Market tumbling in the 4th quarter of In inflation was in almost the perfect range if any inflation can be considered "perfect".

But inflation began ticking up in late and early until the Oil Price War and the Coronavirus crashed the stock market and took inflation to near zero.

Calculating the Current Inflation Rate. If we compare July 's cpi index which was See monthly Inflation for a table of all the individual months since The months January through May plus again in September ended with annual deflation.

Note that the BLS rounded some of these months to 0. Also worth noting: Annual deflation for the first five months of was primarily due to lower gasoline prices rather than a lack of FED money printing although the FED had tapered it's "Quantitative Easing" program.

One major issue remains, i. June through December saw inflation increase with the exception of the year ending in September which was slightly deflationary again.

Interestingly, the CPI index peaked in August and then fell steadily from September through December from That is because October, November and December were more deflationary than October, November and December so as each month's rate was replaced the ANNUAL inflation rate rose even though the monthly inflation rate was negative but less negative than the previous year.

As we can see from the chart over the last 25 years they have hit the target a total of 6 times out of more than data points.

This lends credence to the idea that the FED has less control over inflation and even deflation than they would like us to believe.

The overall trend since has been down with a few brief periods of higher inflation. The chart shows the annual inflation rate from The rate peaked in October at 6.

Inflation increased from there to peak at 5. The FED's Quantitative easing pumped inflation back up to 3. However, as prices were beginning to climb again in the price of oil came crashing down.

Common wisdom has it that in order to flush out shale oil and alternatives like Solar and Wind. But is this really the cause of the oil glut? And will the new deal with Russia eliminate it?

One of the major factors in Consumer Price Inflation is the price of energy primarily gasoline for their vehicles but also heating oil, and Electricity which is also dependent on oil prices.

Of course prices vary widely across the country due primarily to the imposition of state taxes on gasoline. For instance California imposes In January , several states adjusted their highway taxes Pennsylvania already had the largest gas tax in the country, at We have published several articles on how the Oil price is affected by the petrodollar but gasoline prices are also affected by state and federal highway taxes.

Historically Democrats have pushed for an increase in the This would increase the price that you pay at the pump not just while gas prices are low but even if gasoline prices returned to previous higher levels.

Although monthly inflation for the first two months was 0. But annualizing that rate would still result in 4. Fortunately the first quarter is usually the highest and then typically inflation decreases and often ends in deflation in the last quarter of the year.

Monthly inflation was negative disinflationary every month from July through November except September when it was slightly inflationary 0.

September fell back to 1. November bumped up a bit to 1. See - Inflation Recap for more information. This was the beginning of the Quantitative Easing program and later called QE1.

In the long run steady low inflation rates benefit everyone as people can accurately judge their future costs and make sound business decisions.

But the government prefers a higher inflation rate so it can repay its debts with "cheaper dollars. This is what the government means by "stimulating the economy" i.

The obvious long term effects are a society with more debt than it should have and thus we see crashes like we saw in Then the government has to "do something" so it prints more money to fix the problem it created by printing money in the first place.

For more detail see: Stimulate the Economy? Most of these securities were virtually worthless at this point.

But just a few months earlier they were considered part of the larger money supply. So in effect the FED bailed out the owners of this junk debt and pumped up the money supply at the same time by converting worthless junk into "valuable" greenbacks.

In December Ben Bernanke began "tapering" which slowly shut off the flow of easy money and by October the flow was totally stopped. Edward Griffen reminds us that the Federal Reserve is really just a bank cartel and it primarily has its members interests at heart.

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